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Hurricanes, and especially the flooding associated with these natural disasters, create the potential and opportunity for significant Financial economics solutions of collateral condition," said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.
Hurricane Florence Prompts Rising Tide of Defect Risk in North and South Carolina Beyond the devastating effect of hurricanes on the lives of those in their path and the damage on their homes, natural disasters also impact loan application defect risk. Hurricanes, especially the flooding associated with these natural disasters, create Financial economics solutions potential and opportunity for significant misrepresentation of collateral condition and identity fraud in mortgage applications.
According to trend data in the Defect Index, we're seeing this potential for mortgage fraud risk become a reality. Since the beginning of the year, the Defect Index has steadily decreased nationally, falling 8.
However, the last two months have seen a reversal in this trend, with overall defect risk increasing 2. In fact, September is the first month this year to experience an increase in the Defect Index for purchase transactions.
While we have not yet seen the full impact of the hurricane season on defect risk trends, we already see preliminary defect risk spikes in states impacted by Hurricane Florence, North and South Carolina. Recent estimates show that Hurricane Florence's flooding and wind destruction damaged approximately 50, residential units, with nearly 80 percent of these homes located in North Carolina.
North and South Carolina experienced nearly identical monthly increases in the Defect Index in September, 5.
The rise in defect risk is more pronounced when comparing with three months ago, as North and South Carolina experienced 6. Defect Index trend data from provides a glimpse at what we might expect in the months ahead.
Before Hurricane Irma hit Florida indefect risk was decreasing. However, following the storm, the trend reversed course in Septemberrising 10 percent through December. Since Decemberdefect risk has declined in Florida.
Unfortunately, historical trends indicate that we should expect defect risk to increase in Florida over the next few months.
The good news is that defect risk spikes due to natural disasters tend to stabilize given time. In the case of Hurricane Irma, defect risk in Florida took approximately three months to stabilize, while defect risk in the New York metropolitan area took almost a full year before defect, fraud and misrepresentation risk returned to pre-Hurricane Sandy levels.
The index is based on the frequency with which defect indicators are identified. The Defect Index moves higher as greater numbers of defect indicators are identified.
An increase in the index indicates a rising level of loan application defects. The index, nationally and in all markets, is benchmarked to a value of in January Therefore, all index values can be interpreted as the percentage change in defect frequency relative to the defect frequency identified nationally in January FAF is a leading provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions that traces its heritage back to First American also provides title plant management services; title and other real property records and images; valuation products and services; home warranty products; property and casualty insurance; and banking, trust and wealth management services.
More information about the company can be found at www. Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American's Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American's business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice.
Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.Create Your Financial Future. Set realistic financial goals and put them into action with the help of a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional who is a member of the Financial .
Create Your Financial Future. Set realistic financial goals and put them into action with the help of a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional who is a member of the Financial . The most cited articles published since , extracted from Scopus. UBS is a global firm providing financial services in over 50 countries.
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